So Ukraine asked the US for more weapons.But the US was still worried about escalation and it didn’t want to send anything that could be used to launch a counter-offensive.
Since the 1970s, the F-16 fighter jet has been a cornerstone of the US Air Force. Other militaries around the world have been allowed to have F-16s, and since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been begging for them. Despite the US having already given nearly $47 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the past year, they have not been as generous when it comes to F-16s.
Back in 2014, when Russia took over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces were in a state of disrepair. The US had only sent protective gear and supplies, not weapons. In 2018, President Donald Trump agreed to send a limited number of anti-tank missiles called Javelins. When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine asked the US for help. They wanted F-16s, main battle tanks, and more. President Joe Biden agreed to send a large package of weapons, but it mainly included smaller, unsophisticated kinds. The US sent more Javelins, plus ammunition, guns and even some anti-aircraft missiles called Stingers. But no one sent their advanced battle tanks or fighter jets.
The US has been concerned about the potential for Russia escalating the conflict, and has been worried that Ukraine might use some of the advanced weapons to strike inside Russia. This has come to define how the US has supplied Ukraine. In the spring of 2022, the war entered its second phase, and Ukraine asked the US for more weapons. The US was still worried about escalation and didn’t want to send anything that could be used to launch a counter-offensive. Since early 2022, the US had been hesitating to expand the scope of its support for Ukraine, which was quickly running out. They wanted to be prudent in what they gave and in April 2022, the US finally agreed to send Ukraine its own artillery. This prompted other allies to follow suit and send their own artillery, although some had wanted to do this earlier. The most important weapon the US sent were HIMARS, powerful rocket launchers that could hit targets up to 80 kilometers away, though not inside Russia. This enabled Ukraine to hit Russian supply depots and command posts far behind its front lines, weakening the Russian troops at the front and allowing Ukraine to capture the Kharkiv region in September and Kherson in November.
In winter 2023, both sides were planning new attacks. Russia was gearing up to push further into the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while Ukraine wanted to take back territory in the south. This would require armored vehicles, like tanks, which Ukraine had been asking for for months. Some countries had sent older models, but the US and its allies were waiting for Germany to send Leopard battle tanks first. When the US and UK agreed to send their advanced tanks in January 2023, Germany and other allies followed suit.
Ukraine is still asking for fighter jets, F-16s to protect their tanks from Russian aircraft, and ATACMS long range missiles to strike Russian positions 300 kilometers behind their lines. Some allies are in favor of sending these weapons, but the US is hesitating due to concerns about readiness and how far Ukraine will fire them.
Despite giving Ukraine over $46 billion in military aid, public opinion in the US is changing, making it difficult for President Biden to sustain this support. An analysis also found that certain supplies may be approaching the minimal level the US requires for its own war planning, prompting the US to focus on ways to increase production of weapons at home, in allied countries, and in Ukraine. However, building these plants could take years. One year of US and allied support has helped transform the Ukrainian army into a formidable force, whose soldiers have repeatedly held their ground against a much larger Russian army. But with both the battlefield and US politics changing, the questions now are: how well will Ukraine fight with what they have, and how much more US help can they count on?
Thanks for watching this episode of Vox Atlas. Vox has been covering the war in Ukraine since it began, with in-depth explainers and analysis. You can find all our coverage of the war at Vox.com/Ukraine.