This chart shows China’s birth and death rate over the last 60 years. For most of it, births were high, but in 2022, China had more deaths than births causing its population to decrease for the first time in 6 decades. To understand why this is such a big deal, consider that China is the world’s manufacturing superpower and nearly 30% of its economic output comes from manufacturing. Despite losing almost a million people in 2022, China’s population is still about as big as it’s ever been: 1.4 billion people. However, it’s projected to shrink by nearly half by the end of the century.

China’s growth and policies have contributed to its population decline. To reverse course and keep its population steady, the government came out with a policy called “Later, Longer, Fewer” - later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births. As a result, China’s birth rate started trending down, but it wasn’t low enough for China’s leaders. In 1980, they implemented the extreme one child policy which limited most families to one child. This policy was backed up by harsh measures such as campaigns of sterilization, IUD insertion, and induced abortions.

While the one child policy achieved its goal of controlling population growth, it was too successful. In order for any population to stay the same size in the long run, each couple needs to have, on average, 2.1 children. This is called the replacement rate. In 2016, China finally ended the one child policy, but after briefly trying out a three child policy, in 2021 they finally let families have as many children as they’d like. Unfortunately, this hasn’t worked due to the unique family structure produced by the one child policy, the rising cost of living, and financial and work pressures. To encourage more births, the government has offered cash subsidies, longer maternal leaves, subsidies for kindergarten, and other monetary support, but it has been difficult to put a price on the commitment of having a child. China’s population crisis is not only about babies, but also about the balance between young and old. Looking at population pyramids, countries with rapid population growth such as Kenya have wide bottoms representing a lot of new young people, and narrow tops. Whereas countries with slower growth, such as the Philippines, still maintain a triangular shape but with less of a difference between the top and bottom. China’s pyramid, however, has a narrow bottom with fewer babies and a heavy top with a larger number of elderly people. This is a positive outcome of improved health and standard of living, but combined with sustained low fertility, it leads to population aging. Projections for 2050 show this pyramid becoming even narrower, which will further drive down China’s population, shrink its labor force, and put the country in a unique position.

The economic modernization of China in the 1980s drove birthrates down even further, but it did not translate to an equally strong economy for everyone. Despite becoming a major world economy, China is still a middle-income country and many, especially in rural areas, have not benefited much from the economic boom. Additionally, China has yet to develop the necessary safety nets to support its aging population.

A slower economy will redefine China’s role in the world and constrain its global reach. Other Asian and European countries are also experiencing population declines, but what makes China different is the speed at which this has happened. With its population growth officially over, China may have to rethink its future not only as a global superpower, but for its citizens at home as well.